In 2018, global economic growth came closer to reaching the levels prior to the 2008-2009 financial crisis, largely thanks to the acceleration of advanced economies. However, major international institutions expect that the world economy in 2019-2020 will experience a slowdown relative to its performance in 2018. Growth expectations for the coming year were revised down due to pressure on the global economy stemming from two key factors: the rise of global protectionist policies and uncertainty surrounding the impact of Brexit on the EU’s leading economies. Although mounting risks on a global scale dampen growth prospects for developed countries, announcements made by the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) signal that slow steps would be taken toward normalization of monetary policy. This stance opens a new window of opportunity for capital flows. Against this backdrop, Turkey, always a country closely watched by foreign investors among other emerging markets, closed the year with upward positive momentum, thanks to quick and effective corrective measures taken by government officials. Turkey both minimized economic environment risks and applied a gradual stabilization policy. In the first half of the year, Turkey registered GDP growth of 6.3%, becoming one of the world’s fastest expanding emerging market economies. In August, the Turkish lira experienced a sudden and baseless depreciation due to tense international relations and speculative attacks. This event constricted economic growth in the second half of the year. However, in September, the government’s New Economy Program helped restore economic stability, leading to a quick rebound. As part of the economic stabilization process, Turkey’s balance of payments entered into a significant recovery trend, closing 2018 at USD 27.4 billion, or 3.5% of GDP. The acceleration in exports of goods and services and the strong uptrend in tourism revenues, two key indicators in Turkey’s economy, allow us to have positive expectations for the coming year. Reflecting the transformation in the economy, Turkey’s balance of payments is projected to be about USD 20-25 billion in 2019. In the coming year, central banks of developed countries are widely expected to not yet adopt a monetary tightening stance. In Turkey, government authorities state their commitment to combat inflation by focusing on stability and economic reform with an emphasis on budgetary discipline and efficiency. Meanwhile, the CBT signals that it will maintain a contractionary monetary policy and we expect that a moderately stable international relations environment will prevail, allowing Turkey to continue being an attractive market in the face of global risks. We see this positive trend continuing during the course of the year. Measures taken under the New Economy Program both restored confidence in Turkey’s economy and supported the real sector. Projecting that the positive impact of these corrective measures will continue in the coming year, we expect Turkey to record GDP growth of around 3% in 2019. Meanwhile, the banking industry, a major driver of the economy, is forecast to demonstrate 10-15% loan growth, with some contraction in profit margins.